For the designed real option setting, the MR model resulted in significantly lower option values than with the geometric Brownian motion. Therefore, it can be concluded that neglecting mean-reverting characteristics could lead to overly conservative investment decisions.Ĭonsistent with existing literature, the volatility of the mean-reverting model was substantially lower compared with the GBM that had important implications for the investment decision. The difference between the investment decision is relatively small for small maturities, however, as maturity increases the difference in the investment decision becomes very significant. The results show that a mean-reverting model results in higher optimal threshold prices compared with a geometric Brownian motion. The option setting has stochastic costs and will be solved using a Least-Squares Monte Carlo Simulation. This paper compares the investment decision of an option to build a gas-fired power plant using a geometric Brownian motion and a mean reverting process as stochastic process. Reference explored how the mean-reverting process affects the prices of real options. One of the most important assumptions is the asset dynamics: mean-reverting (MR) or Geometric Brownian Motion (GBM). Although the real-options valuation method has clear benefits to companies, it is important to note that, like any model, it is based on certain assumptions. Recently, however, the application of real-options analysis has been extended to cover other types of investments as well. In its beginnings, the method was used for projects in the energy industry and capital budgeting decisions involving oil refineries. The real option valuation framework is a relatively new method of investment valuation. For example, real options valuation could examine the opportunity to invest in the expansion of a firm’s factory and the alternative option to sell the factory. However, the mean-reverting property of an asset affects not only the values of financial options but also real options.Ī real option is the right – but not the obligation – to undertake certain business initiatives, such as deferring, abandoning, expanding, staging, or contracting a capital investment project. What does the mean reversion of asset price have to do with options pricing? We have explored this topic previously for financial options.
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